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Just two months ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were a sign or the source of Villa's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. As Rogers swept in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?

That’s a rather hard query to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.

As per Opta, in only two games has the side posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team which has just won 10 in a row, the Villans look strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their star man to save the day with some precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more versus United.

Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition had more shots and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the ball into the top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still find their top level.

• The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the force he was in Germany.
• The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.