A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
